[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 December 11 issued 2337 UT on 01 Dec 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 2 10:37:46 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z DECEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 DECEMBER - 04 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Dec: 155/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low with the most significant
X-ray flare being a C3.6 from region 1356 late in the previous
UT day. The IPS Culgoora Solar Observatory reports that regions
on disc are mostly stable, with some new spots appearing overnight
in region 1363(S20E46). Two CMEs were observed originating late
in the previous UT day. STEREO, SOHO and SDO imagery indicates
that one is a large backside event while the other originates
from a filament eruption on the eastern limb. This is unlikely
to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed ranged around 480 km/s
with the IMF Bz component between +/- 5nT. Solar activity is
expected to remain Low for the next 3 days. No significant features
are expected in the solar wind for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 22222111
Darwin 8 32223112
Townsville 8 32232221
Learmonth 8 32133111
Norfolk Island 5 22121112
Camden 5 22222111
Canberra 4 21122111
Hobart 6 22232111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Dec :
Macquarie Island 11 32244011
Casey 25 55543122
Mawson 16 44323142
Davis 21 54343233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 3003 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Dec 7 Quiet
03 Dec 5 Quiet
04 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
mostly Quiet with some isolated Unsettled periods. Isolated Minor
Storm periods were observed in Antarctic locations. Quiet conditions
are expected for the next 3 days, with some isolated Unsettled
periods possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: No disruptions to HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Dec 128
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30-80% between 00-19UT
Near predicted monthly values at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values with some
enhancements of up to 40%.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Dec 130 About 30% above predicted monthly values
03 Dec 120 About 30% above predicted monthly values
04 Dec 120 About 30% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were generally enhanced up until around 19UT when
conditions generally returned closer to predicted monthly values.
MUFs should remain enhanced with some periods closer to predicted
monthly values for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Nov
Speed: 438 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 78800 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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