[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 August 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 4 09:55:18 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 04 AUGUST - 06 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW
**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Aug:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1    0339UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.7    0432UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M6.0    1350UT  probable   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Aug: 120/72


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Aug             05 Aug             06 Aug
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was high today. Three M-class and several 
C-class flares were observed from regions 1261(N16N37) and region 
1263(N17W06), the largest being an M6 event from region 1261. 
This flare peaked at 1348 and was also associated to a Type IV 
and Type II event, and also to a halo CME with a speed estimated 
speed in the range of 624 to 1038 km/s. The CME is earthward 
directed and a shock is expected to arrive on 05 August. Solar 
wind parameters continue to decline. The IMF Bz fluctuated +/-2nT 
over the UT day whereas the solar wind speed varied between 340 
and 400 km/s showing a gradual decline over the UT day. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 03 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   12100001
      Darwin               3   13100011
      Townsville           2   12100001
      Learmonth            2   11110002
      Canberra             1   12000000
      Hobart               -   --------
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Aug : 
      Darwin              19   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   2100 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Aug    10    Quiet to active. 
05 Aug    20    Active to minor storm 
06 Aug    15    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet today. Geomagnetic activity 
may show enhancements on 04 and 05 August due the effect of the 
CMEs observed on 02 and 03 August. Enhancements upto active levels 
on 04 and upto minor storm level on 05 August are possible. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
06 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in 
HF conditions may be expected during the next 3 days due to expected 
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Aug    38

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly below predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  59

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Aug    35    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                20% 
05 Aug    30    10 to 30% below predicted monthly values 
06 Aug    32    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in 
HF conditions may be expected during the next 3 days due to expected 
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  7.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Aug
Speed: 468 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:   106000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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