[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 April 11

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 23 09:55:17 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z APRIL 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 23 APRIL - 25 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Apr:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.8    0459UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.2    1554UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Apr: 115/66


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Apr             24 Apr             25 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             110/60
COMMENT: Region 1195 produced several C-class flares and two 
M1-flares during 22 April. Futher C-class flares are expected 
with the chance of M-class flares. Solar wind speeds continued 
to decline slowly during 22 April and are presently around 420 
km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected to continue to decline and 
remain low for the rest of the forecast period. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 22 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22222111
      Darwin               6   22222122
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            6   2221----
      Canberra             2   21111000
      Hobart               4   22121101
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Apr : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs       NA
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1211 1212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Apr     5    Quiet 
24 Apr     5    Quiet 
25 Apr     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Predominantly quiet conditions are expected over the 
next few days as coronal hole effects continue to abate. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Sporadic-E and Spread-F conditions were observed at 
times during 22 April which may have degraded HF conditions. 
Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few days. 
Sporadic-E and Spread-F conditions are possible at times over 
the next few days. There is the chance of SWFs over the next 
24 hours. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Apr    61

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% at times during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced by 15%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  44

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Apr    60    Near predicted monthly values 
24 Apr    60    Near predicted monthly values 
25 Apr    55    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 22 April 
and is current for interval 22-23 April (SWFs) . Sporadic-E and 
Spread-F conditions were observed at times during 22 April which 
may have degraded HF conditions. Mostly normal conditions are 
expected for the next few days. Sporadic-E and Spread-F conditions 
are possible at times over the next few days. There is the chance 
of SWFs over the next 24 hours. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Apr
Speed: 447 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:    91400 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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