[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 April 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 22 09:54:36 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z APRIL 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 22 APRIL - 24 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Apr: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Apr 23 Apr 24 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Region 1195 produced several C-class flares during 21
April. Futher C-class flares are expected with the small chance
of M-class flares. Solar wind speeds continued to decline during
21 April and are presently below 450 km/s. Solar wind speeds
are expected to continue to decline over the next 24 hours and
remain low for the rest of the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 12111111
Darwin 5 22121122
Townsville 6 22221222
Learmonth 7 2-311222
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 2 12110001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 16 3543 3321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Apr 6 Quiet
23 Apr 5 Quiet
24 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Predominantly quiet conditions are expected over the
next few days as coronal hole effects continue to abate.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Sporadic-E and Spread-F conditions were observed at
times during 21 April which may have degraded HF conditions.
Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few days.
Sporadic-E and Spread-F conditions are possible at times over
the next few days. There is the small chance of minor SWFs over
the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Apr 57
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% at times during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Apr 55 near predicted monthly values
23 Apr 55 Near predicted monthly values
24 Apr 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Sporadic-E and Spread-F conditions were observed at
times during 21 April which may have degraded HF conditions.
Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few days.
Sporadic-E and Spread-F conditions are possible at times over
the next few days. There is the small chance of minor SWFs over
the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Apr
Speed: 495 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 240000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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