[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 April 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 20 09:42:03 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z APRIL 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 20 APRIL - 22 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Apr: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Apr 21 Apr 22 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was low with new region 1195(S16E38)
producing a C1 flare. This region, along with region 1193(N17W08)
are expected to continue producing C-class flares with a low
chance of an isolated M-class event. The solar wind speed fluctuated
between 360-420km/s until around 2030UT where the onset of a
coronal hole high speed wind stream raised it to around 480km/s.
At the same time Bz moved northwards and is now fluctuating between
0 to 10nT. This elevated wind speed is expected to last for 1
to 2 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 22111112
Darwin 5 22211112
Townsville 7 22------
Learmonth 5 22211112
Canberra 0 -1000001
Hobart 1 11100001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Apr :
Darwin 50 (Unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 1033 4211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Apr 12 Unsettled
21 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Apr 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic activity has been mostly Quiet. Some Unsettled
conditions in high latitudes persisted until around 09UT as a
result of the sudden impulse observed on 18-Apr. Some Unsettled
conditions are expected during the next day or 2 due to coronal
hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected over the next
few days, with some depressed periods likely at higher latitudes
due to coronal hole effects, expecially on day 1.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Apr 49
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly to Enhanced by 30%.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% from 01-10UT,
Near predicted monthly values at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to Enhanced over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Apr 45 near predicted monthly values
21 Apr 45 near predicted monthly values
22 Apr 45 near predicted monthly values
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Apr
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 90100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list