[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 April 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 3 09:34:02 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z APRIL 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 03 APRIL - 05 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Apr: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Apr 04 Apr 05 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: Region 1176 (S16W78),decaying slightly, is now beginning
to rotate off the disc. Region 1183 (N15W12) has increased somewhat
in magnetic complexity but produced only two sub-flares. STEREO
A images show a CME at ~1124 UT. SDO images appear to indicate
the source as spotless region 1181 (S27W29). ACE shows solar
wind parameters being disturbed over the reporting period with
speed rising from about 400 to 650 km/s. The IMF Bz component
fluctuated strongly between +/- 10 nT much of the time; the density
data seems to indicate combined CME/coronal hole effects.
There is the slight chance of an M-class flare over the forecast
period. Based on available images at this time, it is not expected
the CME will be geo-effective. Solar wind parameters are expected
to remain disturbed on days one and two due to the effects of
a recurrent coronal hole moving into a geo-effective position,
before subsiding on day three.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Apr: Quiet to unsettled
with isolated active periods at higher latitudes.
Estimated Indices 02 Apr : A K
Australian Region 11 32332133
Darwin 11 32332133
Townsville 13 3233----
Learmonth 11 32332133
Canberra 8 21331023
Hobart 12 32342123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Apr :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 13 1112 3443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Apr 10 Quiet to unsettled
04 Apr 5 Quiet
05 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible at higher latitudes
on day one.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Apr 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
Enhanced to 35% 20-22 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 35%
01-11 and 16-19 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 30%
05-15 and 19-23 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced to 35% apart from near predicted monthly
values at Hobart and Perth 00-07 and 15-20 UT. Spread
F observed at Hobart and Perth 11-21 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhancements to 30% at Macquarie Is and depressions to
30% at other stations.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
04 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
05 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
COMMENT: Higher latitudes can expect occasional depressions to
30%.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Apr
Speed: 375 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 59600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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