[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 March 11

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 01 APRIL - 03 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Mar: 113/64


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Apr             02 Apr             03 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             110/60
COMMENT: AR1176(S16W51) produced a C2.6 flare and AR1183(N15E14) 
produced a C1.2 flare. These two regions, the most active on 
disc over the last few days, both decayed somewhat over the day. 
A C1 flare was observed around 2215UT from an as yet undetermined 
region. No new regions appeared. The solar wind speed remained 
low at between 300-380km/s. The IMF Bz ranged between 0-5nT prior 
to 10UT when a step change to -5nT occurred. Activity is expected 
to be low over the next few days with a chance of isolated M-class 
flares. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 31 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11121111
      Darwin               5   22121112
      Townsville           6   22222122
      Learmonth            2   11021100
      Canberra             1   01020000
      Hobart               2   01121000
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   4100 1100     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Apr     5    Quiet 
02 Apr     5    Quiet 
03 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Minor disturbance was observed around 10UT associated 
with a step change in the IMF Bz. Conditions are expected to 
be Quiet with a chance of isolated Unsettled periods on the third 
day due to coronal hole effects. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Mar    90

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
about 25% above predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  40

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Apr    70    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
02 Apr    60    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
03 Apr    60    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Mar
Speed: 361 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:    22500 K  Bz:  11 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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