[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 September 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 28 09:31:54 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 SEPTEMBER - 30 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Sep: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Sep 29 Sep 30 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 84/26 83/24
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed varied between 450 and 500 km/s during the UT
day today. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
fluctuated between +/-4 nT for most parts of the UT day. Region
1109 (N22E01) showed further growth in the areas of coverage
over this period. Solar activity is expected to stay at very
low to low levels for the next 3 days with possibility of C-class
flare activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Sep : A K
Australian Region 6 12112232
Darwin 7 -3112222
Townsville 7 12222232
Learmonth 8 12112333
Canberra 2 00001220
Hobart 5 01102322
Casey(Ant) 11 3--22233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 1121 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Sep 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
29 Sep 4 Quiet
30 Sep 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions
were observed over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar geomagnetic
conditions may be expected on 28 September with the possibility
of activity levels declining to mostly quiet levels for the
following two days thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most locations
over the last 24 hours with some degradations on high latitude
circuits. Nearly similar conditions may be expected on 28
Septmeber. HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations on 29 and 30 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Sep 31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near monthly predicted values with periods of
depressions upto around 20% .
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Sep 32 near predicted monthly values
29 Sep 34 near predicted monthly values
30 Sep 34 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across
Australian/NZ regions today. Nearly similar HF conditions
may be expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Sep
Speed: 454 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 51500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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