[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 September 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 23 09:34:59 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 SEPTEMBER - 25 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Sep: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Sep 24 Sep 25 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 88/32 88/32
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during the last 24
hours. The anticipated coronal hole has not eventuated yet.
The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 380 to 300 km/s
today. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
mostly stayed positive upto around +4 nT during the UT day
today. There is still some chance for the solar wind stream
get stronger on 23 and 24 September due to the effect of a
coronal hole as it still looks to be in a geoeffective location.
Solar wind stream is expected to then weaken around 25 September.
Flare activity of C-class levels may be observed over the next
24 hours. Solar activity is expected to stay at very low to
low levels over the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 22100001
Darwin 2 12100102
Townsville 5 22111122
Learmonth 2 22000001
Canberra 0 10000000
Hobart 1 11000001
Casey(Ant) 3 22210001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 41 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2221 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Sep 14 Mostly quiet to unsettled, active periods possible.
24 Sep 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled.
25 Sep 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed
over the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic activity may show some
enhancements upto active levels on 23 September and upto
unsettled levels on 24 September due to the effect of a
high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole.
Geomagnetic activity is then expected to gradually decline
to quiet levels on 25 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most locations
over the last 24 hours with some degradations on high
latitude circuits. Minor to moderate degradations in HF
conditions and MUF depressions may be expected on high and
possibly on mid latitude locations over the next 2 days
due to some possible rise in geomagnetic activity on these
days. HF conditons are expected to return to mostly normal
levels on most locations on the third day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Sep 39
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Sep 36 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
24 Sep 38 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
25 Sep 40 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with isolated periods
of minor depressions were observed across Australian/NZ
regions today. Some degradation in HF conditions in the
Australian/NZ region may continue to be expected on 23 and
24 September due to a possible rise in geomagnetic activity
on these days. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected
in this region on 25 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Sep
Speed: 431 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 96500 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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