[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 September 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 10 09:32:42 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 SEPTEMBER - 12 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Sep: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with region
1105 producing a long duration C3.3 x-ray event at 2333UT on
08Sep before it rotated of disc. Solar wind speed increased over
the UT day from 350km/s at 00UT to be 450km/s at the time of
this report. The north-south component of the IMF, Bz ranged
between +/-6nT over the UT day. Solar activity is expected to
be Very Low over the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 Sep : A K
Australian Region 7 21123311
Darwin 6 21123301
Townsville 9 22223322
Learmonth 7 22023311
Canberra 3 10012300
Hobart 4 10013301
Casey(Ant) 9 33222312
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Sep :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 2302 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Sep 6 Quiet
11 Sep 6 Quiet
12 Sep 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours. Quiet conditions expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Sep 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Sep 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
11 Sep 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
10%
12 Sep 30 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable conditions observed for Equatorial and Northern
Australia regions over the last 24 hours with enhanced and depressed
MUF's during local day and night. Mostly normal ionospheric support
for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions. Similar conditions
are expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Sep
Speed: 418 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 55700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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