[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 October 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 31 10:20:24 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z OCTOBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 OCTOBER - 02 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Oct: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Oct 01 Nov 02 Nov
Activity Very Low to Low Very Low to Low Very Low to Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 82/23 80/20
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours
with several B-class x-ray flares observed from active regions
1117 and 1120. Expect this trend to continue with a moderate
chance for an isolated C-class flare over the next three days.
Solar wind speed ranged from 320 to 400 km/s during the last
24 hours. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
was between +4/-6nT. Expect the solar wind to remain in this
range or slightly above for the next three days. ACE data shows
two weak shocks at approximately 1000UT and 1500UT most likely
associated with CME occurring on 26 October.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 12122212
Darwin 5 22121212
Townsville 12 223333-3
Learmonth 4 12022201
Canberra 2 01021201
Hobart 4 11122211
Casey(Ant) 7 23222211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 17 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1100 1200
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Oct 6 Quiet
01 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions at all latitudes with some isolated
cases of Unsettled conditions at high latitudes due to glacing
impact of CME. Expect mostly Quiet conditions at all latitudes
for the next three days with a chance of Unsettled to Active
conditions at high latitudes on 01-02 November due to coronal
hole rotating to it geo-effective location.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Oct 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Oct 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
01 Nov 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
02 Nov 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect possible mild depressions due to weak CME and
coronal hole effects over the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Oct
Speed: 390 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 51100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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