[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 October 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 28 10:17:45 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z OCTOBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Oct:  88/32

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Oct             29 Oct             30 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    84/26              84/26              84/26

COMMENT: Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours with 
a C-class x-ray flare observed at 27/1704UT from active region 
(AR) 1117. In addition, several B-class flares were observed 
from this region. AR 1117 magnetic complexity is simplifying, 
therefore expect a decrease in flare rate, mostly B-class flares 
with a slight chance for a isolated C-class flare over the next 
three days. LASCO C3 imagery showed a CME on the north limb first 
observed at 27/0754UT. STEREO imagery indicates it is a backside 
event at a high northern latitude. The Solar wind speed decreased
from 570-480 km/s during the last 24 hours. The Bz component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field was between +/-3nT. Expect 
the solar wind to continue to subside over the UT day as the 
coronal rotates westward out of its geo-effective location. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 27 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22122122
      Darwin               5   22121122
      Townsville          14   33333233
      Learmonth            5   22122121
      Canberra             3   11112021
      Hobart               4   12122111
      Casey(Ant)           8   ---32131
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Oct : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            11   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   3222 1222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Oct     4    Quiet 
29 Oct    12    Unsettled 
30 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: Expect mostly Quiet conditions today, 28 October. On 
29-30 October expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions due to impact 
of CME with isolated cases of Active to Minor Storm conditions 
at high latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
27 Oct    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Oct    10    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
29 Oct    20    Near predicted monthly values 
30 Oct    10    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Mostly depressed MUFs of 10%-25% observed in the Australian 
and Antarctic regions. Expect improving conditions today, 28 
October, with a return to near predicted MUFs on 29 October. 
On 30 October expect possible degraded conditions again due to 
increased geomagnetic activity induced by expected CME glancing 
impact. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Oct
Speed: 602 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:   160000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and 
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to 
receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list