[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 October 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 18 10:21:38 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z OCTOBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 OCTOBER - 20 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Oct: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Oct 19 Oct 20 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 86/29 86/29 86/29
COMMENT: AR1112 produced numerous B and C X-ray flares in the
last 24 hrs and continues to grow and show a complex magnetic
structure. It has a moderate chance of producing C and/or M class
xray flares over the next 24 hours. Extended periods of IMF Bz
southwards and a rise in Vsw from 340 to 440 km/s were possibly
due to the glancing blow from the slow CME observed 11th Oct.
The M flare on 16 Oct from AR 11112 had an associated type II
radio burst with a coronal shock speed estimates of 930-1390
km/s. At his time no CME observations have been made however
and no Forbush decrease is evident in cosmic ray data. On 19
October there is likely to be an increase in solar wind due to
a coronal hole reaching its geoeffective location on the solar
disc.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Oct : A K
Australian Region 8 32322122
Darwin 8 32322122
Townsville 15 33333333
Learmonth 9 32322222
Canberra 6 22322011
Hobart 7 12333011
Casey(Ant) 10 33322132
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6 1210 1132
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Oct 12 Unsettled
20 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled at mid and
low latitudes. Polar latitudes varied from Quiet through Active
and Storm at some stations due to extended periods of IMF Bz
southwards and a rise in Vsw from 340 to 440 km/s possibly due
to the glancing blow from the slow CME observed 11th Oct. The
M flare on 16 Oct from AR 11112 had coronal shock speed estimates
of 930-1390 km/s. At his time no CME observations have been made
however and no Forbush decrease is evident in cosmic ray data.
On 19 October there is likely to be an increase in solar wind
and geomagnetic activity due to a coronal hole reaching its
geoeffective location on the solar disc.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Oct 36
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Oct 30 Near predicted monthly values
19 Oct 30 Near predicted monthly values
20 Oct 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near monthly medians except at polar latitudes
due to geomangeitc activity from slow CME on 11th Oct finally
glanging geomagnetic field. There a possibility of fadeouts for
the next three days due to expected increase in flare activity
associated with AR 1112. Otherwise, expect near predicted MUF
values for the next three days. The M flare on 16th had a an associated coronal
shock speed measured but as yet no CME reported.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Oct
Speed: 345 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 56000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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