[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 November 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 23 10:40:59 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z NOVEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 NOVEMBER - 25 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Nov: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Nov 24 Nov 25 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during the UT
day. Expect current trend to continue for the next
three days. The solar wind speed ranged from 400 to
450 km/s over the last 24 hours Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/-6nT
for most parts of the UT day today.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Nov: Mostly quiet with
isolated unsettled periods.
Estimated Indices 22 Nov : A K
Australian Region 8 22232222
Darwin 6 11222222
Townsville 10 22333321
Learmonth 8 22222322
Canberra 5 11222212
Hobart 7 12232212
Casey(Ant) 11 3--32223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Gnangara NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1002 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Nov 4 Quiet
24 Nov 4 Quiet
25 Nov 4 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity was mostly at quiet levels
today with isolated unsettled periods. Quiet conditions are
expected for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over
the last 24 hours. Similar conditions may be expected for
the next three days as no significant variation to the
ionospheric conditions is expected during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Nov 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly valus to depressed by 15%.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Nov 10 near predicted monthly values
24 Nov 10 near predicted monthly values
25 Nov 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in
the Aus/NZ region over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar
HF conditions may be expected for the next 3 days for
this region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Nov
Speed: 409 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 81100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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