[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 November 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 17 10:05:02 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z NOVEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 NOVEMBER - 19 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Nov: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Nov 18 Nov 19 Nov
Activity Very Low to Low Very low to Low Very low to Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Several B-class x-ray flares were observed during the period.
Expect current trend to continue with a moderate chance of C-class
flares. The solar wind speed decreased from 650 to 500 km/s over
the UT day and is presently 500 Km/s. Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +5/-4nT. SOHO LASCO
C3 imagery showed a CME on the east limb early in the UT day,
16 November. The CME is not expected to be geo-effective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Nov : A K
Australian Region 9 32223222
Darwin 6 22212212
Townsville 8 22223222
Learmonth 9 22223322
Canberra 5 21122211
Hobart 8 32223211
Casey(Ant) 13 4--32322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Nov :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 2312 1113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Nov 6 Quiet
19 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled in the
Australian region with cases of Active conditions at high latitudes.
Expect a return to Quiet to Unsettled conditions over the next
three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Nov 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Nov 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
18 Nov 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
19 Nov 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 25 was issued on 14 November
and is current for interval 15-17 November. Expect MUFs to be
near predicted monthly values at mid to high latitudes. Expect
low latitudes to range from near predicted monthly values to
depressed 10 to 20 percent over the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Nov
Speed: 618 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 225000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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