[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 November 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 3 10:29:57 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z NOVEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 NOVEMBER - 05 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Nov:  79/19


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Nov             04 Nov             05 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              78/17              80/20
COMMENT: Very low solar activity observed over the last 24 
hours. Solar wind speed varied between 320 and 360 km/s for 
most parts of the UT day today. The Bz component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field varied between +/-5 nT during 
this period. Solar activity is expected to be at very low 
levels on 03 and 04 November and at very low to low levels 
on 05 November as the previously M-class flare producing 
region 1112 returns to the visible solar disk. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 02 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12212111
      Darwin               5   22212112
      Townsville          15   -3333333
      Learmonth            4   22112101
      Canberra             1   01101000
      Hobart               4   11212111
      Casey(Ant)           7   23321111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           9   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs       NA
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0110 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Nov     4    Quiet 
04 Nov     4    Quiet 
05 Nov     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions stayed at quiet levels 
today. Mostly quiet conditions may be expected for the 
next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Minor depressions in MUFs were observed at some 
mid latitude locations today. Mostly normal HF conditions 
may be expected for most locations for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
02 Nov    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Nov    18    near predicted monthly values 
04 Nov    18    near predicted monthly values 
05 Nov    18    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Periods of minor MUF depressions were observed in 
the Aus/NZ regions today. Mostly normal HF conditions may 
be expected for this region for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Nov
Speed: 336 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:    61200 K  Bz:   6 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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