[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 May 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 30 09:54:36 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z MAY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 30 MAY - 01 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 May: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 May 31 May 01 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed then varied between 320 and 380 km/s for most
parts of the UT day today. The Bz component of IMF stayed negative
(at times upto -13 nT) almost the whole day. The CME activity
observed on 24 May may have been the reason for these periods
of strongly negative Bz. Recurrent pattern also suggests the
possibility of strengthening of solar wind stream on 30 and 31
May too. Solar activity is expected to remain mostly at very
low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 May: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 29 May : A K
Australian Region 17 23543322
Darwin 13 23433322
Townsville 20 33543333
Learmonth - --------
Canberra 12 1253221-
Hobart 19 12643312
Casey(Ant) - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 May :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice_Springs NA
Gnangara NA
Canberra 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 35
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 1322 3233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 May 15 Mostly unsettled to active, isolated minor storm
periods possible.
31 May 15 Mostly unsettled to active, isolated minor storm
periods possible.
01 Jun 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: As anticipated periods of minor storm conditions were
observed in the Australian region today. Unsettled to active
periods with some possibility of isolated minor storm period
may be expected on 30 May and 31 May due to the continued effect
of a CME to the CME activity and then due to the effect of a
coronal hole. A weak (31nT) impulse was observed in the IPS
magnetometer data at 0759UT on 29 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
31 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
01 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to poor HF conditions were observed on 29 May
with sporadic E-layer interferences at times. HF conditions may
show mild to moderate degradations from 30 May to 31 May due
to possible enhancements in geomagnetic activity during this
period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 May 25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 May 7 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
31 May 7 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
01 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild to moderate MUF depressions were observed in the
Australian region due to the effect of a CME activity and very
low EUV radiation emitted from the sun, resulting from a low
number of sunspots on the visible solar disc. Mild to moderated
degradations in HF conditions may be expected from 30 to 31 May
due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 May
Speed: 374 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 60800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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