[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 May 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 28 09:46:14 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z MAY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 28 MAY - 30 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 May:  72/8

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 May             29 May             30 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    73/9               73/9               75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during the last 
24 hours. Solar wind stream did not get as strong as 
previously anticipated. Solar wind speed initially 
increased from 340 to 380 km/s and then gradually 
declined to around 310 km/s by 2330 UT. The Bz component 
stayed between +/-3 nT for most parts of the UT day today. 
The CME activity observed on 24 May may be expected to 
strengthen the solar wind stream on 28 May. Recurrent 
pattern also suggests the possibility of strengthening 
of solar wind stream on 29 and 30 May too. Solar activity 
is expected to remain mostly at very low levels for the 
next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 May: Mostly quiet with
isolated unsettled periods. 

Estimated Indices 27 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110111
      Darwin               1   10110001
      Townsville           9   33222222
      Learmonth            1   11110000
      Canberra             2   00300002
      Hobart               0   00010000
      Casey(Ant)           2   11110111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   2211 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 May    15    Unsettled to active, minor storm periods possible. 
29 May    14    Unsettled to active 
30 May    12    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 7 was issued on 26 May and 
is current for interval 27-28 May. Mostly quiet conditions 
with some unsettled periods were observed in the Australian 
region today. Unsettled to active periods with some possibility 
of isolated minor storm periods may be expected on 28 May 
due to the CME activity observed on 24 May. Recurrent pattern 
suggests possible enhancements on 29 and 30 May too. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 May      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          
29 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          
30 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          
COMMENT: Mostly normalto fair HF conditions were observed 
on 27 May with sporadic E-layer interferences at times. HF 
conditions may show minor to moderate degradations from 28
to 30 May due to possible enhancements in geomagnetic activity 
during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
27 May     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 
      depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to
      depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 May     7    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                20% 
29 May     7    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                20% 
30 May     7    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 10 was issued on 26 
May and is current for interval 27-28 May. Mild MUF depressions 
were observed in the Australian region due to the lower EUV 
levels emitted from the sun, resulting from a low number of 
sunspots on the visible solar disc. Minor to moderated 
degradations in HF conditions may be expected from 28 to 30 
May due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels 
on these days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 May
Speed: 331 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:    51100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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