[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 May 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 26 09:54:07 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z MAY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 26 MAY - 28 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 May: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 May 27 May 28 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 76/14 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during the last 24
hours. Solar wind speed stayed around 300 km/s and the
Bz component close to the normal value almost the whole
day today. Region 1072(S15W36) produced a B6.5 flare which
peaked at 1551UT. The CME activities of 23 and 24 May may
be expected to strengthen the solar wind stream late on
26, 27 and possibly through early parts of 28 May.Solar
activity is expected to remain mostly at very low levels
for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 May : A K
Australian Region 5 12212212
Darwin 5 12112212
Townsville 11 23323223
Learmonth 7 12222312
Canberra 2 01001102
Hobart 4 11112202
Casey(Ant) 6 22211113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 2 1000 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 May 5 Mostly quiet, unsettled periods possible during
the late hours of the day.
27 May 15 Unsettled to active, minor storm periods possible.
28 May 12 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 25 May and
is current for interval 26-27 May. Quiet conditions were
observed in the Australian region today. Mostly quiet conditions
may be expected for 26 May with the possibility of a rise in
conditions upto unsettled levels during the late hours of the
day due to the possible arrival of the CME of 23 May. Activity
may rise further on 27 and possibly on 28 May due to the CME
activities observed on 23 and 24 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 May Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 May Normal Normal Normal
27 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
28 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on
25 May with sporadic E-layer interferences at times.
HF conditions may show minor to moderate degradations
on 27 and 28 May due to possible enhancements in geomagnetic
activity during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 May 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to
depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to
depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 May 9 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
27 May 4 about 20% below predicted monthly values
28 May 4 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 9 was issued on
25 May and is current for interval 27 May only. Mild MUF
depressions were observed in the Australian region due to
the lower EUV levels emitted from the sun, resulting from
a low number of sunspots on the visible solar disc. Degraded
conditions may be expected on 27 and 28 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 May
Speed: 312 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 23400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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