[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 May 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 24 09:39:38 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z MAY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 24 MAY - 26 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 May: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 May 25 May 26 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 76/14 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed ranged from 390 to 360 km/s. Expect the solar
wind speed to remain below 400 km/s for the next three days.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged
between +/-2 nT. The GOES 14 x-ray instrument shows a long duration
B1 class x-ray flare peaking at 1801UT/23 in association with
a weak CME observed by STEREO COR1 imagery at 1805UT/23. The
activity is Earthward directed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11110001
Darwin 2 21100001
Townsville 10 33322222
Learmonth 1 11010001
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 01000000
Casey(Ant) 1 11100000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 0211 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 May 4 Quiet
25 May 4 Quiet
26 May 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region.
Expect Quiet conditions to prevail over the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 May Normal Normal Normal
25 May Normal Normal Normal
26 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 May 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 May 15 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
25 May 15 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
26 May 15 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild MUF depressions were observed in the Australian
region due to the lower EUV levels emitted from the sun, resulting
from a low number of sunspots on the visible solar disc. Expect
this trend to continue until sunspot numbers return to predicted
values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 May
Speed: 389 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 47200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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