[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 May 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 13 09:49:04 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z MAY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 13 MAY - 15 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 May:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 May             14 May             15 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during the UT day. 
As expected, the solar wind stream is going strong. Solar 
wind speed gradually increased from around 400 km/s to 500 
km/s by 0800UT today and then stayed at this level until 
the time of this report (2330UT).The Bz component of the 
IMF stayed between +/-5 nT for most parts of the day. The 
expected coronal hole effect seems to be eventuating. Solar 
wind stream may remain strengthened for the next three days 
due to the presence of small sized coronal holes in 
geoeffective positions. Solar activity is expected to remain 
at very low levels for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 12 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12123111
      Darwin               4   12122101
      Townsville          15   33333333
      Learmonth            5   12123101
      Canberra             1   01012000
      Hobart               3   11023000
      Casey(Ant)           7   23213111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 May : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            33   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              10   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   2222 1331     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 May    10    Moslty quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods 
                possible on high latitudes. 
14 May    10    Moslty quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods 
                possible on high latitudes. 
15 May    10    Moslty quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods 
                possible on high latitudes. 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions observed 
over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions on most 
locations with some possibility of isolated active periods 
on high latitudes may be expected for the next three days 
due to the presence of small coronal holes in geoeffective 
positions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today. Appearance 
of sporadic E-layers affected communications conditions on 
low and some mid latitude locations. Mostly normal conditions 
on low and mid latitudes are expected for the next three days 
and some MUF depressions and degradations in conditions may be 
possible on high latitude circuits due to a possible continued 
enhancement in geomagnetic activity levels during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
12 May    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 May    14    Near predicted monthly values to depressed 10%. 
14 May    14    Near predicted monthly values to depressed 10%. 
15 May    14    Near predicted monthly values to depressed 10%. 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the 
Aus/NZ regions today with some periods of minor to mild 
depressions in MUFs. Nearly similar HF conditions may be 
expected for the next three days in this region. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 May
Speed: 387 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:    59000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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