[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 May 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 9 09:11:44 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z MAY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 09 MAY - 11 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 May: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 May 10 May 11 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during the UT day, 08 May. AR1069
produced three C-class x-ray flares and several B-class flares
the most intense was a C9.3/1F peaking at 0459UT/08. Expect solar
activity to return to Very Low as AR1069 rotates off the visible
solar disc. Solar wind speed ranged from 500 km/s to 440 km/s
during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain in this range
or slightly lower. The interplanetary magnetic field Bz component
varied between +2/-4 nT and was mostly southward.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 May : A K
Australian Region 6 22222211
Darwin 5 22222111
Townsville 6 22222211
Learmonth 7 22223211
Canberra 3 11221100
Hobart 6 12332200
Casey(Ant) 10 33322222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 10 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9 3321 3122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 May 6 Quiet
10 May 6 Quiet
11 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours
with isolated Active levels noted at higher latitudes. Over the
next three days expect mostly Quiet conditions with occasional
Unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 May Normal Normal Normal
10 May Normal Normal Normal
11 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 May 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 May 24 Near predicted monthly values
10 May 24 Near predicted monthly values
11 May 24 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Frequencies at most Australian latitudes were near monthly
medians with slight depressions noted at local night time hours.
Expect near predicted monthly MUF values for the next 3 days.
Noted spread F at Hobart station during local night time hours
with sporadic E between 1100 and 1300 UT. Observed sporadic E
also at Norfolk station during evening and early night time hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 May
Speed: 502 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 84200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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