[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 March 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 12 10:52:07 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z MARCH 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 12 MARCH - 14 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Mar: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar
Activity Very Low to Low Very Low to Low Very Low to Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the the last 24 hours
with several B-class x-ray flares. NOAA active regions (AR) 1054
and 1055 are both likely to produce B-class flares with possible
isolated cases of C-class flares. Note, AR 1054 doubled in spot
area overnight. Expect Very Low to Low solar activity over the
next three days. The solar wind speed was variable and ranged
between 440 and 520 over the last 24 hours. This trend is likely
to continue during the UT day, 12 March. The Bz component of
the interplanetary magnetic field was mostly southward until
0900UT 11 March, which along with the variable increase in solar
wind speed buffeted the Earth's magnetic field.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Mar : A K
Australian Region 8 23232121
Darwin 7 22232121
Townsville 9 23233121
Learmonth 8 22233221
Hobart 7 22232121
Casey(Ant) 15 44342131
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 1121 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Mar 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled at low to
mid latitudes and Unsettled to Active with isolated cases of
Minor Storm levels at high latitudes. Most of the activity was
associated with an increase in the solar wind speed along with
a prolonged southerly Bz. Any Pronounced southward Bz component
in the IMF is likely to result in similar conditions over the
next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Mar 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
13 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
14 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
COMMENT: Mostly normal to moderately enhanced HF conditions are
expected for the next 3 days due to an increase in EUV levels.
However, There was a noted slight depression at high latitudes
as a result of isolated cases of Minor Storm geomagnetic
activity at high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Mar
Speed: 408 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 133000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list