[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 March 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 9 10:07:03 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z MARCH 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 09 MARCH - 11 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Mar: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the the last 24 hours.
Very Low solar activity is expected over the next 3 days. Solar
wind speed ranged between 300 and 380 and is expected to remain
in this range or slightly above.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 22211111
Darwin 3 22100121
Townsville 4 12211111
Learmonth 3 22101110
Hobart 4 22211111
Casey(Ant) 9 34-20122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Mar :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2320 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Mar 6 Quiet
10 Mar 4 Quiet
11 Mar 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet over the last
24 hours with Unsettled to Active conditions at high latitudes
in the early part of the UT day, 8 March. Expect mostly quiet
conditions for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Mar 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Mar 15 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 20%.
10 Mar 15 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 20%.
11 Mar 15 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 20%.
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.03E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Mar
Speed: 399 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 71800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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