[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 February 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 1 10:53:03 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z FEBRUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 MARCH - 03 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Feb: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 84/26 84/26
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the the last 24 hours.
Active regions 1050 and 1051 have simple magnetic structure and
are not expected to produce any significant activity over the
next three days, however expect the return of active region 1045
into view on the east limb today, 01 March. Activity may increase
to Low as this region rotates on to the visible disc. The solar
wind speed was at nominal levels of 300 to 360 km/s. Expect the
solar wind to increase today and reach 500 km/s by the end of
the UT day due to a recurrent coronal hole reaching its geo-effective
locaton on the solar disc. Note, a CME encompassing much of the
northern solar hemisphere was seen on SOHO C2 and C3 imagery
begining at 1354UT and 1618UT 28 February respectively. No associated
activity was observed with the CME and it is suspected of being
on the far-side of the sun and therefore not geo-effective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 22311112
Darwin 5 22301102
Townsville 6 22311112
Learmonth 6 22312211
Canberra 2 11201001
Hobart 7 22312212
Casey(Ant) 8 33311112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Feb :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 2 0000 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Unsettled levels
over the last 24 hours. Expect the the solar wind speed to increase
over the UT day, 01 March, resulting in Quiet conditions at low
latitudes, Quiet to Unsettled conditions at mid latitudes and
Quiet to Active conditions at High latitudes with isolated cases
of Minor Storm levels. Expect these conditions to prevail over
the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Feb 34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
02 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
03 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions in the Australian/NZ region were
elevated compared with predicted monthly values due to strong
EUV from the sunspot regions on the disc. Expect similar conditions
over the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Feb
Speed: 316 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 45800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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