[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 June 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 28 09:00:13 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JUNE 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 28 JUNE - 30 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jun: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jun 29 Jun 30 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 74/11 75/13
COMMENT: The solar wind speed increased from 430 to 530 km/s
during the UT day. Expect the solar wind to remain elevated for
the next three days due coronal hole extending from the northern
pole. The interplanetary magnetic field Bz component ranged from
+6/-8. Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. Solar
activity is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Jun : A K
Australian Region 10 23333122
Darwin 8 23322122
Townsville 17 24433333
Learmonth 10 23323222
Canberra 8 13333010
Hobart 9 23333111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jun :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 15 3433 2343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jun 12 Unsettled
29 Jun 12 Unsettled
30 Jun 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions with isolated cases of
of Active levels at high latitudes were observed over the last
24 hours. Expect this trend to continue over the next three days.
There is a possibilty of Minor Storm levels due to a strong northern
extension of the coronal hole that is borderline geo-effective
extending down to near 25 degrees north from the pole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jun Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jun 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jun 15 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
29 Jun 15 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
30 Jun 15 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs observed for Northern AUS/Equatorial
and Southern AUS/NZ regions during the local day time hours.
Ionospehric support expected to be slightly below monthly averages
across all regions due to reduced EUV ionisation/weak sunspot
activity for the next 3 days, with MUF depressions of 10%-20%
for low to mid latitudes. Noted isolated cases of sporadic E
in the Australian region, particularly at Cocos Island during
the early local night time hours..
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jun
Speed: 438 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 160000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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