[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 June 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 24 09:00:25 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z JUNE 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 24 JUNE - 26 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jun: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jun 25 Jun 26 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 75/13 76/14
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed ranged between 330km/s-310km/s over the UT day.
IMF Bz varied between +1/-3 nT, mostly southward. Expect the
solar wind to increase to over 500 km/s on 25 June due to a coronal
hole reaching its geo-effective location. Solar activity is expected
to be Very Low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 12111111
Darwin 2 12110011
Townsville 11 23332232
Learmonth 1 11110010
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 1 01111000
Casey(Ant) 3 12111120
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jun :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2111 1232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jun 6 Quiet
25 Jun 24 active
26 Jun 18 active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 23 June and
is current for interval 25-26 June. Quiet geomagnetic conditions
observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected
for today, 24 June. Expect geomagnetic activity to increase early
on 25 June due to an increase in the solar wind speed. Expect
Unsettle to Active conditions on 25 and 26 June with isolated
cases of Minor Storm levels at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal
25 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
26 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jun 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jun 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
25 Jun 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
26 Jun 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs observed for Northern AUS/Equatorial
and Southern AUS/NZ regions during UT day. Ionospehric support
expected to be below monthly averages across all regions due
to reduced EUV ionisation/weak sunspot activity for the next
3 days, with MUF depressions of 10%-20% for low to mid latitudes.
Noted isolated cases of sporadic E in the Australian region,
particularly Cocos Island during local night time hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jun
Speed: 338 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 47400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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