[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 June 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 19 09:46:53 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z JUNE 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 19 JUNE - 21 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jun:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Jun             20 Jun             21 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               71/6               71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
Region 1082 was the source of two minor B-class events. Solar 
wind speed remained elevated and ranged between 500km/s-560km/s 
in the first half of the UT day, declining to be 480km/s at the 
time of this report. The solar wind speed is expected to decline 
further over the next 24 hours as the effects of the recent coronal 
hole diminish. IMF Bz varied between +/-2nT. Solar activity is 
expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 18 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22221221
      Darwin               4   22111210
      Townsville          13   33332332
      Learmonth            5   22221210
      Canberra             1   11000100
      Hobart               1   11010110
      Casey(Ant)          10   33321-31
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jun : 
      Darwin              19   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            44   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Hobart              41   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   2332 1232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Jun     7    Quiet 
20 Jun     5    Quiet 
21 Jun     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the 
last 24 hours with some Unsettled periods for high latitudes. 
Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
20 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
21 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Jun     7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Jun     5    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
20 Jun    10    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
21 Jun    10    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs observed for Northern AUS/Equatorial 
and Southern AUS/NZ regions during local day. Disturbed periods 
for Antarctic regions with otherwise normal HF conditions. Notable 
sporadic E for Northern AUS/Equatorial region, in particular 
for IPS sounding stations Cocos Is. at 10UT-13UT and Townsville,
Brisbane,Norfolk Is. between 04UT-07UT. Similar conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days, with MUF depressions of 10%-20% for low to mid latitudes.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jun
Speed: 526 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:   158000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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