[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 June 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 9 13:07:02 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPOR - CORRECTION
ISSUED AT 09/0310Z JUNE 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 09 JUNE - 11 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jun:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Jun             10 Jun             11 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind speed increased to 420 km/s over the UT day 
due to a recurrent coronal hole. This hole is thin in solar longitude 
however, so effects should only last for a day or two. IMF Bz 
varied north and south at low magnitudes ,not inducive for merging 
with the geomagnetic field. Sunspot activity is minimal with 
AR1076 rotating off the disc and AR1078 providing a few B-class 
X-ray flares and type III radio bursts. The STEREO-B spacecraft 
has observed a prolonged Bz southwards period, estimated to meet 
Earth on 13-14th June and probably associated with a solar sector 
boundary predicted in models. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 08 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21111121
      Darwin               3   -21-1111
      Townsville          11   33322232
      Learmonth            3   21111111
      Canberra             0   10000000
      Hobart               1   11000010
      Casey(Ant)           5   21211131
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jun : 
      Darwin              27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   3101 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Jun     7    Quiet 
10 Jun     5    Quiet 
11 Jun     2    Quiet 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed increased to 420 km/s over the UT day 
due to a recurrent coronal hole. The geomagnetic field did not 
respond strongly however, possibly as IMF Bz varied north and 
south at low magnitudes, not inducive for merging with the geomagnetic
field, and activity was only occasionally Unsettled. This hole 
is thin in solar longitude, so effects should only last for a 
day or two. The STEREO-B spacecraft has observed a prolonged 
Bz southwards period, estimated to meet Earth on 13-14th June 
and probably associated with a solar sector boundary predicted 
in models. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Jun     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Jun    14    near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to 
                10% 
10 Jun    14    near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to 
                10% 
11 Jun    11    near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to 
                10% 
COMMENT: Frequencies were down across the region generally, due 
to reduced EUV ionisation as the sunspot groups decline or rotate 
off the solar disc. Solar wind speed increase due to a recurrent 
coronal hole slightly increased geomagnetic activity which also 
contributed in depressing frequencies. This hole is thin in solar 
longitude however, so effects should only last for a day or two. 
Spread F is prevalent at several stations, particularly at night, 
and likely to continue for a day. The STEREO-B spacecraft has 
observed a prolonged Bz southwards period, estimated to meet 
Earth on 13-14th June and probably associated with a solar sector 
boundary predicted in models. This will probably result in moderately 
disturbed geomagnetic and hence ionospheric conditions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jun
Speed: 400 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:    37400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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