[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 July 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 31 09:38:28 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z JULY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JULY - 02 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jul:  85/27


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Jul             01 Aug             02 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Active region 1092 produced a few B-class flares over 
the UT day. A NE limb CME was observed early in the UT day in 
association with one of these flares. Solar wind speed remains 
elevated at around 600 km/s under the influence of an extensive 
N polar coronal hole. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 30 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   21122222
      Darwin               5   11121222
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            6   21122222
      Canberra             4   11021212
      Hobart               6   21132212
      Casey(Ant)           8   3--22-22
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jul : 
      Darwin              29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              49   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   2322 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
01 Aug     6    Quiet 
02 Aug     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remains elevated at ~600km/s due to 
an extensive N polar coronal hole. Bz was mostly neutral for 
the first half of the UT day 30 Jul, with moderate fluctuations 
to +/-4nT observed during the second half of the UT day. The 
regional geomagnetic field was quiet at low to mid latitudes 
with unsettled to active intervals later in the day at high latitudes 
only. Expect mostly quiet conditions next three days with the 
chance of unsettled periods, mainly at high latitudes. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Jul    17

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Jul    20    near predicted monthly values 
01 Aug    20    near predicted monthly values 
02 Aug    20    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the UT day 
with mild depressions observed Equatorial/N Aus regions after 
local dawn. Periods of sporadic-E conditions observed local evening 
Cocos Islands and Hobart. Disturbed conditions for Antarctic 
regions in the latter half of the UT day. Mostly normal ionospheric 
support expected for the next 3 days with possible disturbed 
periods for Antarctic regions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jul
Speed: 603 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:   164000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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