[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 July 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 29 09:51:48 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z JULY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JULY - 31 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jul: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jul 30 Jul 31 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 87/30 87/30
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with region
1089 producing a C2.8 class flare at 2042UT along with 2 notable
B-class events, B5.3 at 1002UT and B8.1 at 1307UT. Region 1089
remains unchanged in its size and magnetic complexity, with the
potential for further C-class events. New region 1092 has rotated
onto the disc. The solar wind speed (Vsw) remains elevated due
to coronal hole effects and is currently 600km/s at the time
of this report. Bz ranged between +/-5nT over the UT day. Solar
activity is expected to be Very Low to Low for the next three
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Jul : A K
Australian Region 11 32333222
Darwin 10 32333221
Townsville 12 32333232
Learmonth 11 32333222
Canberra 10 32333221
Hobart 11 32333222
Casey(Ant) 15 43333-32
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jul :
Darwin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 78 (Active)
Canberra 58 (Unsettled)
Hobart 74 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 19 3344 3343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Jul 6 Quiet
31 Jul 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the
last 24 hours. Solar wind speed (Vsw) remains elevated at ~600km/s
due to the recurrent coronal hole high speed solar wind stream
(HSSWS) and is expected to remain so for the next 24-48 hours.
Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions for 29Jul and mostly Quiet
conditions expected for 30Jul-31Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jul Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jul Normal Normal Fair
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jul 25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jul 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
30 Jul 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
31 Jul 15 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed MUF's during local night for some Northern
AUS/Equatorial regions during the last 24 hours. Enhanced MUF's
during local night for Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed
conditions for Antarctic regions. Depressed MUF's of 10%-20%
for Northern AUS/Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed conditions
for Antarctic expected for the next 2 days due to increased
geomagnetic activity, with improving conditions expected from
31Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jul
Speed: 570 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 201000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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