[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 July 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 25 09:41:59 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JULY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JULY - 27 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jul:  85/27


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Jul             26 Jul             27 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    84/26              84/26              82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with 
only minor B-class events. Region 1089 continues to decay and 
remains magnetically simple, with a slight chance of a producing 
a C-class flare. The solar wind speed Vsw was ~380km/s between 
00U-12UT and then fell to be 360km/s up till the time of this 
report. The north-south Bz component of the IMF ranged between 
+8nT and -5nT over the UT day with notable southward periods 
between 15UT-23UT. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low 
for the next 3 days. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 24 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21101221
      Darwin               3   21101211
      Townsville           6   22211222
      Learmonth            4   21111221
      Canberra             1   11000111
      Hobart               1   11100110
      Casey(Ant)           5   12201222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jul : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   2221 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Jul     6    Quiet 
26 Jul     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
27 Jul    14    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours. 
Quiet conditions are expected for 25Jul and Quiet to Unsettled 
for 26Jul. Anticipated arrival of a coronal hole high speed solar 
windstream on 27Jul expected to result in Unsettled to Active 
conditions. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
26 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
27 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Jul    21

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Jul    20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
26 Jul    20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
27 Jul    15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
COMMENT: Depressed MUF's during local night for Northern
AUS/Equatorial regions observed over the last 24 hours. 
Enhanced conditions for Southern AUS/NZ regions during local night. 
Either disturbed HF conditions or enhanced periods for Antarctic 
regions. GOES satellite indicates a decline in x-ray flux levels
which may see average MUF's decline and T indicies fall below 
monthly averages over the next few days. MUF depressions of 
10%-20% expected for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions and 
possibly for Southern AUS/NZ regions for the next 3 days with
otherwise normal ionospheric support. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jul
Speed: 378 km/sec  Density:    8.5 p/cc  Temp:    49800 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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