[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 July 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 14 09:30:25 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JULY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JULY - 16 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jul: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Region 1087 (N21E20) produced a C2.6 flare at 1051 UT.
The region has the potential to produce further, isolated C-class
events. Region 1088 (S21E12) was numbered. The solar wind speed
decreased from about 350 to 300 km/s while the north-south component
of the IMF ranged between +/-3 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected
to be somewhat disturbed over the next three days due to the effects
of a recurrent coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11110001
Darwin 2 21100001
Townsville 9 23322222
Learmonth 1 21010000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 00000000
Casey(Ant) 1 21100000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jul :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5 2000 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jul 10 Quiet to unsettled
15 Jul 6 Quiet
16 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible at high latitudes today.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
15 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
16 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jul 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly 15-30% depressed.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly 15-30% depressed.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed. Night
spread F observed.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values; occasional
depressions to 30%. Night spread F observed.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
15 Jul 8 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
16 Jul 8 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
COMMENT: Spread F may degrade night circuits.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jul
Speed: 331 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 49500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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