[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 July 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 11 09:48:38 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JULY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JULY - 13 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jul: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Region 1087 (N19E57) is growing and it produced a B3 flare that
peaked at 2013UT. Solar wind speed gradually decreased from 340
to 260 km/s and the Bz component of the IMF stayed mostly between
+/-2nT through the day. Solar region 1087 may produce C-class
flares. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low to low
levels for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 12110001
Darwin 3 13100001
Townsville 9 23322222
Learmonth 0 11000000
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 0 00000000
Casey(Ant) 2 12110000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jul :
Darwin 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2221 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jul 3 Quiet
12 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Jul 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the
last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may be expected on 11
July. Some enhancements in geomagnetic activity may be observed
from 12 July due to the effect of a high speed solar wind stream
from a recurrent coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity may rise
from quiet to unsettled levels on 12 July and unsettled to active
levels on 13 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
12 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
13 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions were observed
on most locations during the UT day today. Nearly similar
conditions may be expected on 11 July. Minor to moderate
degradations may be observed in HF conditions on 12 and 13
July due to the possibility of rise in geomagnetic activity
levels from 12 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jul 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% to near predicted monthly values
during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% to near predicted monthly values
during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jul 20 near predicted monthly values
12 Jul 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
13 Jul 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: Variable MUF depressions of up to around 15%
observed during both local day and night for Northern
AUS/Equatorial regions with notable sporadic E at times.
Ionosphere continues to remain weakly ionised due to very
low solar activity. Similar HF conditions may be expected
on 11 and 12 July with some possibility of further
degradations on 13 July due to the possibility of rise
in geomagnetic activity levels from 12 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jul
Speed: 353 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 72200 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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