[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 July 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 9 09:30:02 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z JULY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JULY - 11 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jul: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low with a few B-class
flares observed over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed
varied between 310 and 330 km/s and the Bz component of
the IMF stayed between +/-2nT for most parts of the day.
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low
levels for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11111011
Darwin 2 11200011
Townsville 10 23322232
Learmonth 3 21111011
Canberra 0 10000000
Hobart 0 00011000
Casey(Ant) 3 21111011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jul :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1100 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jul 3 Quiet
10 Jul 3 Quiet
11 Jul 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may be expected
for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
10 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
11 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Mostly fair to normal HF conditions were observed
on most locations during the UT day today. Nearly similar
conditions may be expected for the next three days as the
ionospheric ionisation continues to remain weak due to
continued very low solar activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jul 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day to near predicted
monthly values,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day to near predicted
monthly values,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day to near predicted
monthly values,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jul 7 Depressed 10 to 20 %/near predicted monthly.
10 Jul 7 Depressed 10 to 20 %/near predicted monthly.
11 Jul 7 Depressed 10 to 20 %/near predicted monthly.
COMMENT: Variable MUF depressions of up to around 20%
observed during both local day and night for Northern
AUS/Equatorial regions with notable sporadic E at times.
Ionosphere continues to remain weakly ionised due to very
low solar activity. Similar HF conditions may be expected
for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jul
Speed: 336 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 27300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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