[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 July 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 3 09:22:58 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JULY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JULY - 05 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jul:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Jul             04 Jul             05 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    73/9               74/11              74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low and is expected to remain 
so for the next three days. Solar wind speed remained steady 
at 600 km/s. IMF Bz fluctuated +/-4nT. Elevated solar wind parameters 
are expected to continue for the next day, gradually declining 
on days two and three. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 02 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22323222
      Darwin               7   12322212
      Townsville          16   33433333
      Learmonth            9   22323222
      Canberra             5   11322102
      Hobart               6   12322112
      Casey(Ant)          13   33233233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jul : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            15   (Quiet)
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12   3422 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
04 Jul     5    Quiet 
05 Jul     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remains elevated under the influence 
of a coronal hole wind stream. The regional geomagnetic field 
was quiet at low to mid latitudes with an unsettled interval 
06-09UT. Conditions were unsettled at high latitudes with isolated 
active intervals. Expect occasional unsettled periods day one 
with the chance of isolated active periods at high latitudes. 
Conditions should gradually decline to quiet days two and three. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Jul     7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Jul     5    depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
04 Jul    10    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
05 Jul    10    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: MUF depressions of up to 30% observed throughout the 
region, mainly during local day. Periods of sporadic-E conditions 
observed Cocos Islands local evening. Periods of spread-F conditions 
observed Hobart and Canberra, especially local evening/night. 
Expect continuing MUF depressions throughout the region due to 
low EUV/ionisation. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jul
Speed: 625 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:   148000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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