[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 December 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 1 10:26:08 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z DECEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 JANUARY - 03 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Dec:  80/20


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Jan             02 Jan             03 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    79/19              79/19              79/19
COMMENT: There was a minor step increase in solar wind velocity 
recorded at the ACE satellite platform after 16UT. This has not 
produced any significant space weather effects. Growth in AR 
1039 over the UT day has resulted in a general increase in background 
solar X-ray flux. A number of minor B-class flares were observed 
over the day. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 31 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111011
      Darwin               1   11001011
      Townsville           4   21112111
      Learmonth            1   11011010
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               1   11101000
      Casey(Ant)           7   23321111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              0   0000 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Jan     2    Quiet 
02 Jan     2    Quiet 
03 Jan     2    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed throughout 
the region today. Similar conditions may be expected for the 
next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal        
02 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal        
03 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal        

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Dec   -23

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20-30%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Jan   -15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
02 Jan   -15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
03 Jan   -15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: Periods of sporadic-E conditions observed throughout 
the UT day at Darwin, Townsville, Brisbane and Norfolk Island. 
Generally depressed conditions observed Equatorial/N Aus regions. 
Recurrence and continuing low solar activity suggests possible 
occasional MUF depressions of 10 to 20%, mainly Equatorial/N 
Aus regions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Dec
Speed: 276 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    13900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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