[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 February 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 28 10:20:58 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z FEBRUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 FEBRUARY - 02 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Feb: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Feb 01 Mar 02 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 84/26 84/26
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the the last 24 hours.
Active regions 1050 and 1051 have simple magnetic structure and
are not expected to produce any significant activity over the
next three days, however the return of active region 1045 late
in the UT day on 28 February may increase activity to Low. The
solar wind speed was at nominal levels of 300 to 360 km/s. Expect
the solar wind to remain in this range until mid UT day on 28
February when a recurrent coronal hole is expected to be geo-effective.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between
+/-4nT over the last 24 hrs.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Feb : A K
Australian Region 2 11100121
Darwin 2 11100012
Townsville 3 21110121
Learmonth 2 11000120
Canberra 0 00000010
Hobart 2 11100121
Casey(Ant) 4 12210121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 1000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was predominantly Quiet at low
to mid latitudes with isolated periods of Unsettled to Active
levels in the Antarctic region. This trend is expected to continue
until mid UT day today, 28 February, when the solar wind speed
is expected to increase resulting in Quiet conditions at low
latitudes, Quiet to Unsettled conditions at mid latitudes and
Quiet to Active conditions at High latitudes with isolated cases
of Minor Storm levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Feb 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Variable conditions during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Feb 30 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
01 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
02 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions in the Australian/NZ region were
elevated compared with predicted monthly values due to strong
EUV from the sunspot regions on the disc. Expect similar conditions
over the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Feb
Speed: 381 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 67300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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