[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 February 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 22 10:29:47 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z FEBRUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 FEBRUARY - 24 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Feb: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Feb 23 Feb 24 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 82/23 80/20
COMMENT: Solar Activity was very low over the the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed remained nominal at 340 to 380 km/s over the
UT day. The north-south component Bz of the IMF stayed mostly
positive upto +5nT. Solar activity is expected to stay at very
low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 21111111
Darwin 2 10101012
Townsville 4 21111122
Learmonth 3 21012111
Canberra 0 10000000
Hobart 3 11111111
Casey(Ant) 7 23221122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Feb 3 Quiet
23 Feb 3 Quiet
24 Feb 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was predominantly at Quiet levels.
Activity is expected to remain at Quiet levels for the next 3
days as there are no coronal holes evident in SOHO or STERO images
and solar wind speed should remain nominal.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Feb 46
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 110% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Feb 40 5 to 30% above predicted monthly values
23 Feb 40 5 to 30% above predicted monthly values
24 Feb 30 5 to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions in the Australian/NZ region were
elevated compared with predicted monthly values due to strong
EUV from the three sunspot regions on the disc. Nearly similar
conditions may be expected for the next two to three days with
perhaps a slight reduction in MUFs on the thid day as one of
the active regions rotates off the disc.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Feb
Speed: 414 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 20500 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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