[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 December 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 14 10:30:30 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z DECEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 DECEMBER - 16 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Dec:  88/32

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Dec             15 Dec             16 Dec
Activity     Low                Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              88/32              88/32

COMMENT: Two new regions, 1134 (N19W33) and 1135 (N18E56). ACE 
data shows the solar wind speed increasing from about 420 to 
600 km/s over the reporting period while the north-south IMF 
component ranged between +6 to -7 nT. Solar wind speed should 
remain high day one with solar wind parameters becoming disturbed 
around the start of day two due to the effects of a coronal hole
and the CMEs on 12 Dec. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Dec: Quiet to unsettled.
Active to minor storm levels at high latitudes. 

Estimated Indices 13 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   32222323
      Darwin               8   22122323
      Townsville          10   32222233
      Learmonth            9   32121323
      Canberra             7   22211223
      Hobart              10   33311223
      Casey(Ant)          15   55543333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              17   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   0000 1312     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Dec     5    Quiet 
15 Dec    12    Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods possible. 
                Minor storm periods likely at high latitudes. 
16 Dec     8    Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods likely 
                at high latitudes. 

COMMENT: Activity is expected to increase at the start of day 
two in response to CME activity on 12 Dec and the effects of 
a coronal hole. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal        
15 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal        
16 Dec      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Poor-fair     

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
13 Dec    27

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% 00-05 UT. No data 06-23 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      00-01, 19-23 UT at Darwin and 23 UT at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Occasional depressions
      to 20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 20%
      at times.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  34

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Dec    10    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
15 Dec    15    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
16 Dec     0    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 

COMMENT: Spread F may affect night communications at higher
latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Dec
Speed: 323 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:    55200 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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