[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 December 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 12 10:03:29 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z DECEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 DECEMBER - 14 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Dec:  87/30

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Dec             13 Dec             14 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    88/32              89/33              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the UT day, 11 December. 
Expect no significant flare activity over the next three days. 
Solar wind speed decreased from 375 to 310 km/s over the last 
24 hours. Expect the solar wind stream to be elevated for the 
next two days due to recurrent coronal hole. The Bz component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +-4/-2nT 
over the last 24 hours. LASCO C3 imagery showed a weak CME on 
the west limb initially observed on the 0718UT image. It is not 
expected to be geo-effective. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 11 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22212111
      Darwin               5   22212111
      Townsville           5   22212121
      Learmonth            2   11111011
      Canberra             1   01101000
      Casey(Ant)           9   33322112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Dec : 
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              0   0000 0000     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
13 Dec    12    Unsettled 
14 Dec     6    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet in the Australian/NZ 
and Antarctic regions over the last 24 hours. Expect Quiet to 
Unsettled conditions with isolated cases of Active levels at 
high latitudes for the next two days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
11 Dec    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Northern Australian Region:
      No data available during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  34

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Dec    20    near predicted monthly values 
13 Dec    10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
14 Dec    10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for the Australian/NZ 
and Antarctic regions over the last 24 hours. Possible mild depressions 
expected on 13-14 December. Observed isolated cases of sporadic E in 
the Ausrtralian region. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Dec
Speed: 338 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:    40600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.

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