[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 December 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 10 10:37:11 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z DECEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 DECEMBER - 12 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Dec:  87/30

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Dec             11 Dec             12 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    87/30              87/30              88/32

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the UT day, 9 December. 
Expect no significant flare activity over the next three days. 
Solar wind speed decreased from 400 to 320 km/s over the last 
24 hours. Expect a gradual increase in the solar wind speed today, 
10 december and larger increase on 11-12 December due to recurrent 
coronal hole. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
ranged between +/-3nT over the last 24 hours. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 09 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22111112
      Darwin               5   22112112
      Townsville           5   22211122
      Learmonth            4   22112111
      Canberra             0   01000001
      Hobart               1   11101001
      Casey(Ant)           8   3-322112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1100 1031     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Dec     6    Quiet 
11 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
12 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet in the Australian/NZ 
and Antarctic regions over the last 24 hours. Expect similar 
conditions today, 10 December. On 11-12 December expect Quiet 
to Unsettled conditions with isolated cases of Active levels 
at high latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
09 Dec     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  34

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Dec    15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
11 Dec    15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
12 Dec     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for the northern 
Austalian region with minor depressions observed in the southern 
Australian/NZ and Antarctic regions over the last 24 hours. Expect 
this trend to continue for the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Dec
Speed: 369 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    62900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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