[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 December 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 6 10:32:01 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z DECEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 DECEMBER - 08 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Dec: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 89/33 89/33 89/33
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the last 24 hours,
with the only minor B-class event activity and the emergence
of new regions 1132(N10W12) and 1133(N13E60). Solar wind speed
ranged between 270km/s-300km/s over the UT day and is expected
to remain at this level for the next 2 days, with an expected
increase on 08Dec due to the arrival of a high speed solar wind
stream from a geoeffective coronal hole. The Bz component of
the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/-4nT. Solar
activity is expected to be Very Low for the next three days with
the slight chance of a C-class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11110112
Darwin 2 01110012
Townsville 5 22111122
Learmonth 2 11010102
Canberra 0 00000002
Hobart 0 00000002
Casey(Ant) 7 23321112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0010 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Dec 4 Quiet
07 Dec 4 Quiet
08 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next 2 days with
Unsettled conditions for 08Dec with the expected arrival of a
high speed solar wind stream from a geoeffective coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Dec 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Dec 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
07 Dec 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
08 Dec 20 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for the Austalian/NZ
region over the last 24 hours with only depressed MUFs 10%-20% during
local night for Northern AUS regions. Normal ionospheric support
for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions with notable sporadic
E for IPS Brisbane and Norfolk Is. stations between 05-10UT.
MUFs expected to be near predicted monthly values over the next
3 days with possible depressed conditions during local night
for Northern AUS regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Dec
Speed: 294 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 27900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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