[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 August 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 24 09:31:54 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z AUGUST 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 24 AUGUST - 26 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Aug:  75/13

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Aug             25 Aug             26 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: The solar wind speed remained below 300 km/s until about 
1230 UT after which solar wind parameters became disturbed due 
to the effects of a recurrent coronal hole. Solar wind speed 
increased to 410 km/s at the time of this report and is expected 
to further increase and remain elevated for the forecast period.
The north-south IMF component ranged between +10/-15 nT and is
likely to remain disturbed for the first half of day one, then
quieten. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Aug: Quiet with unsettled
levels 21-2330 UT. 

Estimated Indices 23 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11111113
      Darwin               6   22211113
      Townsville           7   12212223
      Learmonth            3   11011112
      Canberra             1   00000003
      Hobart               2   10001003
      Casey(Ant)           3   22100102
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Aug : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              25   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              4   1000 1222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Aug    14    Mostly unsettled with an isolated active period. 
                Possible minor storm levels at high latitudes. 
25 Aug     8    Quiet to unsettled 
26 Aug     8    Quiet to unsettled 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Aug      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
23 Aug    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
      08-10, 13, 16-17 and 21-23 UT. Depressions to 45%
      14-15 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      01, 07-18 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      at Darwin 05, 08-14 UT. Mostly 15-20% depressed at
      Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30% at
      times 08-16 UT Brisbane, Canberra and Hobart. Night
      spread F observed at most stations.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Aug    20    Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed. 
25 Aug    20    Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed. 
26 Aug    20    Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed. 

COMMENT: Spread F possible at all latitudes during night hours. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Aug
Speed: 279 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    23100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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