[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 August 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 21 09:51:01 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z AUGUST 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 21 AUGUST - 23 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Aug:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Aug             22 Aug             23 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    76/14              76/14              76/14
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed gradually decreased from 330 to 300 km/s during 
the UT day today and the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field mostly stayed between +/4nT over the last 24 hours. Solar 
activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the next 
3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 20 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111111
      Darwin               3   11101112
      Townsville           5   12212212
      Learmonth            3   21111111
      Canberra             0   00000001
      Hobart               2   10111111
      Casey(Ant)           3   21111111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   1212 0121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Aug     4    Quiet 
22 Aug     4    Quiet 
23 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained mostly at quiet levels 
today. Similar levels of activity may be expected on 21 and 22 
August. Recurrence pattern suggests possible rise in geomagnetic 
activity to unsettled levels with some possibility of isolated 
active periods on 23 August. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most 
locations on 19 August. Similar HF conditions may be expected 
for the next three days with some possibility of minor degradations 
in conditions on 23 August due to possible rise in geomagnetic 
activity on this day. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
20 Aug    25

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 
      depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Aug    27    near predicted monthly values 
22 Aug    27    near predicted monthly values 
23 Aug    27    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most 
locations during the UT day today. Simialr HF conditions may 
be expected for the next three days with some possibility of 
minor degradations on 23 August due to the possibility of 
some rise in geomagnetic activity levels on this day. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Aug
Speed: 338 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    39200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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