[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 August 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 12 09:04:03 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z AUGUST 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 12 AUGUST - 14 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Aug: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug
Activity Very Low to Low Very Low to Low Very Low to Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 86/29 87/30 87/30
COMMENT: Expect solar activity to be Very Low to Low over the
next three days. Active regions 1098 and 1097 are likely to produce
B-class x-ray flares. There is a moderate chance for an isolated
C-class flare from region 1098. The solar wind speed decreased
from 490 to 380 over the UT day and is expected to remain below
400 km/s for the next three days. The interplanetary magnetic
field was between +/-4nT over the last 24 hours with a southward
bias.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Aug : A K
Australian Region 7 22321221
Darwin 5 22211211
Townsville 9 32322222
Learmonth 7 22321221
Canberra 6 22321111
Hobart 7 22322211
Casey(Ant) 8 24211222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2221 1123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Aug 4 Quiet
13 Aug 2 Quiet
14 Aug 2 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Aug 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Aug 27 near predicted monthly values
13 Aug 27 Near predicted monthly values
14 Aug 27 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable conditions observed Equatorial/N Aus regions.
Generally weak ionosphere observed Antarctic region local night
hours. Expect mostly normal ionospheric conditions for the next
three days. Sporadic E was noted at the Darwin and Niue Stations,
particularly in the early morning hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Aug
Speed: 427 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 103000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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