[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 April 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 30 09:54:33 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 30 APRIL - 02 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Apr: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Apr 01 May 02 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 76/14 76/14
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed increased from 360km/s at 00UT to be ~400km/s
at the time of this report. This increase was due to a weak coronal
hole solar wind stream which was preceeded by a co-rotating
interaction region. Bz ranged between +/-7nT. Solar activity
is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 23111111
Darwin 5 23111111
Townsville 5 23111111
Learmonth 4 22111111
Canberra 1 12000000
Hobart 3 23110010
Casey(Ant) 6 33210121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1010 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Apr 5 Quiet
01 May 5 Quiet
02 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic activity observed over
the last 24 hours. Unsettled conditions between 00UT and 06UT
were due to a co-rotating interaction region. Solar wind speed
has remain elevated due to weak coronal hole effects. Mostly
Quiet conditions expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Apr Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
01 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Apr 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Apr 15 near predicted monthly values
01 May 15 near predicted monthly values
02 May 15 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions for all regions over the
last 24 hours with notable sporadic-E conditions observed for
Northern AUS stations during local day. Similar HF conditions
are expected for the next 3 days with possible disturbed periods
for high latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Apr
Speed: 327 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 26800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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