[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 April 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 16 09:30:18 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 16 APRIL - 18 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Apr: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Apr 17 Apr 18 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 77/16 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day. No
flare was observed. Solar wind speed remained mostly between
480 and 520 km/s. The Bz component of IMF mostly stayed
slightly positive (around +4nT). Solar activity is expected
to remain at very low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Apr: Mostly quiet to
unsettled with isolated active periods.
Estimated Indices 15 Apr : A K
Australian Region 6 33212100
Darwin 4 32112100
Townsville 6 23212111
Learmonth 7 33213200
Canberra 2 22101100
Hobart 6 33212100
Casey(Ant) 9 43311111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Apr :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 44 (Unsettled)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 1100 1125
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Apr 5 Quiet
17 Apr 5 Quiet
18 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnectic activity stayed mostly at quiet to
unsettled levels today with isolated active periods at
high latitudes. Mostly quiet levels of activity may be
expected for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly at normal levels on most
locations today. Similar conditions may be expected for the
next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Apr 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted montly values with periods of
depressions around 15%.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Apr 28 near predicted monthly values
17 Apr 28 near predicted monthly values
18 Apr 28 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions in Aus/NZ regions were mostly normal
today. Nearly similar conditions may be expected for this
region for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Apr
Speed: 410 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 83800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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