[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 April 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 14 09:50:56 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 14 APRIL - 16 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Apr:  75/13

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Apr             15 Apr             16 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    77/16              77/16              79/19
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day. One 
B-class flare was observed at 0443UT from region 1062 (S18W21).
Solar wind speed remained between 380 and 400 km/s and the 
Bz component of IMF between +/-4 nT for most parts of the UT 
day today. A partial halo CME was observed around 0900UT
on the north-west limb due to the disappearance of a filament. 
It may result in minor strengthening of solar wind stream 
late on 15 or early on 16 April. Solar activity is expected 
to remain at very low levels for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 13 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111102
      Darwin               3   11211101
      Townsville           4   11211112
      Learmonth            3   21211002
      Canberra             0   00000001
      Hobart               1   -1101001
      Casey(Ant)           6   23-21112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            15   (Quiet)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             22   6431 1321     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Apr     5    Quiet 
15 Apr     5    Quiet 
16 Apr     7    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods 
			possible. 
COMMENT: Geomagnectic activity stayed mostly at 
quiet levels today. Similar level of activity may be expected 
for the next three days with some possibility of isolated 
unsettled periods on 16 April. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal        
15 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal        
16 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most 
location today. Similar conditions may be expected for 
the next three days for most locations with some possibility 
of minor degradations on high latitudes on 16 April due 
a possible slight rise in geomagnetic activity level on this day. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
13 Apr    25

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near monthly predicted values with periods of
      minor to mild depressions.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Apr    27    near predicted monthly values 
15 Apr    27    near predicted monthly values 
16 Apr    25    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions in Aus/NZ regions were mostly normal 
today. Nearly similar conditions may be expected for this 
region for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Apr
Speed: 410 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:    32400 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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