[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 April 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 11 09:26:17 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 11 APRIL - 13 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Apr: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
`COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day. Solar activity
is expected to remain at Very Low levels next three days. The solar
wind speed decreased from 470 to 360 km/s during the last 24 hours and
is presently 360 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field ranged between +/-3 nT. Active region 1060 produced a long duration
B-class x-ray flare on 8 April which was associated with a halo coronal
mass ejection mostly directed eastward. Expect the possible glancing blow
in the Earthward direction on 11 April.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11111011
Darwin 1 11100011
Townsville 3 12111111
Learmonth 3 21111011
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 2 11101111
Casey(Ant) 6 3-311021
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 3211 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Apr 14 Unsettled to Active
12 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Apr 4 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 9 April and
is current for interval 11 April only. The Australian and Antarctic
regions geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet. Today, 11 April
expect possible impact of CME resulting in Unsettled to Active
conditions with isolated cases of Minor and Major Storm activity
at high to mid latitudes. Expect a return to unsettled to quiet
conditions on 12-13 April. Although, there is a possiblilty the CME
may be geo-effective on 12 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Apr 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Apr 20 Near predicted monthly values
12 Apr 10 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
13 Apr 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 9 April
and is current for interval 12 April only. Isolated cases of
sporadic E observed in the Australian and Antarctic regions.
Expect MUFs to be normal predicticted monthly values in the Australian
region today. On 12 April expect mild depressions at mid to high
latitudes due to possible effects from CME impacting the near
Earth environment on 11 April.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:43%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Apr
Speed: 452 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 47200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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